The Dungarvan Conference 2010: Global Intelligence Forum
The Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies (MCIIS) this week brought together leading practitioners from around the world in intelligence analysis for The Dungarvan Conference 2010: Global Intelligence Forum. For those who attended I'm sure you found it as interesting as I did. The quality of speakers was exceptional, this combined with the range and diversity of fields represented made for an engaging experience.
It's interesting to see how diverse fields of study can potentially use similar analytic techniques. Case studies and examples were drawn from and/or applicable to: forensic pathology, archaeology, medicine, intelligence studies, etc. Many best practices exhibit common features such as the quality of information being more important than the quantity of information; the value of viewing problems from multiple perspectives; using different assumptions; and how these can promote analytic tension (which isn't always a bad thing).
However, the fields from which analytic techniques are drawn should be compared and contrasted with the perspective field of study to ensure that there is more than a superficial similarity between the fields. An example of this divergence is that intelligence corroboration is often more important than repeatability. This 'idea confirmation path' is in contrast to the of the traditional scientific method of repeating experiments. One of the take-home messages was to use the right analytic technique for the right job, with more than 500 different techniques listed in some text books, it's important to choose the right one. How to make this choice is an open problem and often domain specific.
Some of the described best practices have ICT equivalents such as inventing an idealised system intruder (highly skilled and motivated with substantial resources) and red-team penetration tests which are, in effect, promoting analytic tension. For me, the use of best practice in an alternative field was highlighted in the final part of the conference where attendees participated in applying two analytical techniques in a practical exercise "Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?". The techniques used were 1) a key assumptions check and 2) the pre-mortem assessment. Both of these analytic techniques are, in my opinion, ideally suited for application to intrusion detection and hardening of ICT systems. Successful use might just save ICT security specialists from having to perform a post-mortem analysis and a presentation on how a business critical system failed.
There were numerous other valuable messages that emerged from the conference such as the importance of knowing your audience and their abilities in order to best communicate your results to them. I look forward to applying the lessons learned and to attending this event
again next year.
As a follow-up here is an article from the Irish Times:
"The Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst, in the Pennsylvanian city of Erie, is understood to be in advanced talks with Waterford Institute of Technology and the local authorities."
So it looks like this event may well continue to be hosted in Waterford, and that we can look forward to deepening ties with Mercyhurst.